Silicon Metal Demand-Side Disruptions: Focus on Changes in Market Sentiment [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM Nov. 13: Silicon Metal: Prices for some specifications of silicon metal edged up slightly at the start of the week before stalling again. As of Nov. 13, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the silicon metal SI2601 contract hit a weekly low of 9,100 yuan/mt and a high of 9,325 yuan/mt, settling at 9,145 yuan/mt at Thursday's close, up 80 yuan/mt WoW. Recent trading was relatively active in regions like Xinjiang and Tianjin. In Xinjiang, silicon enterprises mainly signed orders via point pricing, while in Tianjin, traders primarily sold based on the spot-futures price spread.

On the demand side, the polysilicon operating rate was basically stable WoW, with most polysilicon enterprises focusing on fulfilling previous orders, leading to stable silicon metal consumption. The silicone operating rate saw a slight increase WoW, mainly due to the resumption of production at a monomer plant following maintenance (involving an annual monomer capacity of 300,000 mt). Silicone monomer producers held a meeting yesterday to discuss production cuts to hold prices firm. Today, DMC offers rose significantly. The specific plan and extent of the production cuts have not been finalized yet, and the operating rates of silicone enterprises warrant attention. The aluminum alloy operating rate was basically stable. Alloy plants had a moderate acceptance of prices, purchasing silicon metal as needed when prices dipped.

On the cost side, silicon coal prices remained firm, and petroleum coke prices continued to rise, maintaining strong cost support for silicon metal. On the supply side, operating rates in the hydropower-scarce southwest remained weak, while rates in the north were stable. Silicon metal price fluctuations were limited, and the recent view is that prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound. Frequent "anti-involution" disruptions in the polysilicon and silicone sectors on the demand side necessitate continued monitoring of downstream operating rate dynamics and market sentiment feedback.

Polysilicon: This week, N-type polysilicon prices were 49.4-44.9 yuan/kg, and N-type granular polysilicon prices were 50-51 yuan/kg. Early in the week, polysilicon prices weakened due to downstream price adjustments and market sentiment, while prices from major producers held steady. Subsequently, as industry meetings were held, market sentiment reversed, and polysilicon prices then stabilized temporarily, adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Wafer: Overall wafer prices fell then rose this week. N-type 183mm wafer prices were 1.28-1.3 yuan/piece, 210R wafer offers were 1.28-1.3 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafer offers were 1.65-1.7 yuan/piece. This week's decline in wafer prices was primarily due to excessive toll processing. In November, battery manufacturers tightened demand and implemented price-capped procurement, leading to a sharp drop in purchase orders. Subsequently, second- and third-tier wafer enterprises facing cash flow constraints engaged in panic selling. Later, several wafer enterprises jointly held prices firm, with low quotes for 183 and 210R models reaching 1.3 yuan/piece. However, actual downstream transaction conditions still require close monitoring.

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